There Are No Recessions in Baseball...or Are There?

Last night, the Baltimore Orioles defeated the Tampa Bay "Don't Call Me Devil" Rays 9-6 in front of 10,500 presumably shivering fans, the smallest crowd to ever watch a game in the 17-year history of Camden Yards. Yawn.

Being a Nats fans, I normally wouldn't give two hoots about this story. Two bad teams battling it out early in the race to see which will finish last in the AL East this year. But having given it a little thought, let me introduce my latest economic indicator: Empty Seats at Baseball Parks, or ESBP.

Ever since the sport recovered from the disastrous 1994 strike and started looking the other way while the likes of Barry Bonds, Mark McGuire and Roger Clemens juiced themselves up, baseball's attendance has risen every year. But it would seem to me that the soaring ticket costs to pay escalating player salaries combined with the 162-game season makes baseball particularly vulnerable to an economic downturn. Combine that with corporate belt tightening (anyone interested in that Bear Stearns box at Yankee Stadium?), and you have a potential for a steep drop in fannies in the seats.

So, I will be periodically revisiting this topic as the MLB season unfolds. My prediction is for an overall drop of between 5-10% in the ESBP indicator this year, and the only reason it won't be larger is because most season ticket renewals had to be paid around last December, before the bottom really started to drop out on the economy.

As always, I welcome your predictions.